The Year 2000 Problem

Module A2000c

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So...What's the Problem?

Programming with dates

The Short Answer...

The problem is that computers cannot efficiently store infinitely large numbers. So when dealing with any kind of numbers - whether dates or dollars - computer people need to decide how much memory space (disk or Random Access Memory) they can afford to use for each date or each dollar.

A long time ago, programmers decided to save computing resources by using only two digits for the year (like 01/01/69), and adding 1900 to get the full year (69 + 1900 = 1969). 

When we get to January 1, 2000, programs that store dates in this way will get 01/01/00, they will add 1900 and tell us that the year is now 1900. That's the problem.

Click to go on to:

The Gory Details...

Computers are built to handle numbers efficiently, but generally in certain pre-defined ways. For example:
  • Whole numbers (integers) of either 8, 16, or 32 bits. (A bit is the simple on-off switch fundamental to all computers)

    • 8 bits can store up to 256 numbers
    16 bits can store up to 65,536
    32 bits can store  4,294,967,296
  • Real numbers (which can have a fractional component) are stored in several different ways on different types of computers. They are capable of storing very large and very small numbers, but in extreme sizes they become more and more approximate. For this reason they are not often used for dates.
The trade-off is that to store larger numbers, you need to occupy more space and slow down the computer more.

What happens when you add 1 to the biggest possible number? Answer: It returns to zero. This is just like a car's odometer: when it reaches 999999 and go one more mile, it returns to 000000. In computers this is called overflow.

There are several ways to get computers to handle dates. Each is limited by the size of the number used to represent dates. 

  • Use a starting day and time; represent the date as the number of days or seconds past that time
    • Operating systems like DOS and Unix use this method

      • Starting date for DOS/Windows is January 1, 1980
    • Spreadsheets like Lotus, Excel, and MS Works use this also, with a starting date of January 1, 1900
    • Limits vary from one type of computer to another, depending on the size of number used to represent dates. Example:

      • If we start with January 1, 1980 as day zero,
      add 1 for every day,
      and use a 16-bit integer to store dates:
      The computer can "remember" up to 65,536 days, or
      179 years, 
      so we won't get a date overflow until sometime in the year 2159.
      Another example:
      If we start with Midnight January 1, 1900 as day/time zero, add 1 for every second,
      and use an 32-bit integer to store dates:
      The computer can "remember" up to 4,294,967,296 seconds, or  49,710 days, or 136 years, 
      so we won't get a date overflow until sometime in the year 2036.
  • Another way to store dates is to use the normal written date form, where January 1, 1980 is 01/01/80. 
    • In calculations, the full year is calculated by adding 1900. Example: 80 + 1900 = 1980
    • When adding 1 year to 99, it becomes 00 because of overflow.
    • When 1900 is added to 0, the result is 1900. (Duh...)
    • Therefore, the year AFTER 1999 looks to the computer like 1900!
And that's the Year 2000 problem, folks.

Among computer buffs, 1000 is abbreviated K for kilo. So the "Year 2000 Problem" is often spoken of as the Y2k problem.
 

Why the problem came about
It's because of a series of facts:
  • To store dates without the possibility of overflow takes more disk and memory space;
  • Disk and memory space used to cost hundreds of times as much as they do now;
  • Large-scale computer programs were first written in the 1950s; 
  • In those days, it was too expensive to store dates using their full four digit years.
  • By the 1970s, it was observed that the average life of a mainframe computer system was about seven (7) years - program designers never imagined their software would outlast four generations of computers, so they continued to use 2-digit years...BUT 
  • By the 1990s, it turned out that although the computers themselves got replaced, the software just got transfered to the new computers - with some enhancements, of course!
Behind these facts is the trend: computer hardware is getting cheaper, but developing computer software is getting more expensive.

The result is a series of old, reliable programs with two-digit years deeply embedded and very difficult to get out. Reliable, that is, until January 1, 2000!
 

Who's to blame?
Nobody.

Consider: one expert estimated that using 2-digit years saved more money, adjusting for inflation, than the money now being spent to expand to 4 digits.

The only people possibly to blame are those who didn't start early enough to enlarge their dates.
 

What can be done about it?
Software owners can choose to move in one of two directions:
  1. Replace the older software entirely. This is great if the old software is getting inadequate in other ways, and needs to be replaced anyway.
  2. Modify existing software to accomodate 4-digit years. This is great if the software is good in other respects, and especially if it is well-designed and easy for programmers to modify.
In some cases, computer hardware needs to be replaced as well. This is usually because of firmware - software permanently built in to hardware - that uses 2-digit dates.

How will Y2K Affect our Technology?

What about my computer?
Microcomputers, like all others, are vulnerable to Y2K problems - but they are not as likely to suffer from them. The problems arise from either firmware or software.
  • Microcomputer firmware is (mainly) in the ROM (Read Only Memory) chip, used to guide the computer when the power is first turned on or when it is rebooted. Associated with this is the EPROM (Electronically Programmable ROM) which stores configuration information, such as the number and types of disk drives, the amount of RAM available, and the date and time. 
    • Microcomputers made since about 1995 have been equipped with (EP)ROM that have no problem handling the transition to the year 2000.
    • If your computer was made before 1995, or if you have any question about it, you can run a test program such as TEST2000 from Right Time,  http://www.RighTime.com.
  • Microcomputer software is less likely to have a problem with the Year 2000, because its life cycle is about three years - new versions are made available quite often, and for at least two generations they have been Y2K compliant. The only exception would be those who have older versions of operating systems like DOS.

Here's something you can check if you own a Windows-based computer:

This is simple to do, but could be important.
  1. Click on "START".
  2. Click on "SETTINGS".
  3. Double click on "Control Panel".
  4. Double click on "Regional settings" icon (look for the little world globe).
  5. Click on the "Date" tab at the top of the page. (last tab on the top right)
  6. Where it says, "Short Date Sample", look and see if it shows a "two digit" year format ("YY"). 

    7. Unless you've previously changed it (and you probably haven't) - it will be set incorrectly with just the two Y's... it needs to be four! That's because Microsoft made the 2 digits setting the default setting for Windows 95, Windows 98 and NT. This date format selected is the date that Windows feeds all* application software and will not rollover into the year 2000. It will roll over to the year 00.
  7. Click on the button across from "Short Date Style" and select the option that shows, "mm/dd/yyyy" or "m/d/yyyy". (Be sure your selection has four y's showing, NOT just "mm/dd/yy" nor "m/d/yy"). 
  8. Then click on "Apply". 
  9. Then click on "OK" at the button.
Easy enough to fix. 
* I have not verified this; however, it is true that Windows 98 date format defaults to two digits for the year, even on a computer sold less than six months before the year 2000! The date on Windows-based machines (and most other computers) is stored in an internal form that has little to do with what you see in the output format. Thanks even so to the anonymous individual who sent this warning by email!

Where are the danger areas?

Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility (CPSR) has cataloged only a few effects that have been confirmed:


Two areas have received a lot of attention as potential danger spots: Large government systems, and embedded computers (or "mircoprocessors"). There are others, or course!

Large government systems: Governments use so many computer systems, many of which are old and underfunded. And we depend on many of these for a wide variety of services, from air traffic control to Medicare. Check these two articles, on from February and the other from July...
 
STATE OF THE STATES IN Y2K READINESS
A recent survey by the General Accounting Office shows only a third of the 421 computer systems used by the states to manage seven welfare programs are Y2K-compliant, with Medicaid the lowest at 16%.  Systems that deal with child-care and child-welfare are about 50% compliant.  An ongoing survey of state readiness conducted by the National Association of State Information Resource Executives (NASIRE) indicates that a narrow majority have completed repairs on more than half their critical systems and expect to finish the rest in the next few months.  But the rest of the states are way behind, with Alaska in last place with only 15% of its computer systems repaired.  "For a state, if you're not ready, you're out of the game," says Steve Kolodney, director of Washington state's information services and chairman of NASIRE's year 2000 committee.  It's estimated that states will spend close to $3.5 billion in bringing their computer systems to compliance, more than half of the amount spent by the federal government to do the same. (Los Angeles Times 1 Feb 99)

STATES BUG-FREE FOR FY2000

Forty-six states and several local governments switched over to fiscal year 2000 on Thursday, and so far there have been no reports of any computer glitches.  "It's a little soon to know for sure, but it looks good," says Gloria Timmer, executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers. Technicians were on hand for the date transition to handle any problems that may have arisen, but so far there have been no reports of problems.  "Nobody has had any meltdown," Timmer said.
(Reuters 6 Jul 99, abstracted in Educause electronic newletter, 7 Jul 99)

OPM TO SUSPEND WEB SERVICES

The [U.S.] Office of Personnel Management (OPM) yesterday announced plans to disconnect its Internet services over New Year's weekend to protect its systems from threats posed by hackers and power failures.  Instead of being directed to OPM's home page, users trying to visit the site will see a message from the agency's director explaining why the site has been temporarily removed. Several other federal agencies are likely to also shut down their sites.  Agriculture Department Chief Technology Officer Anne Thomson says a number of USDA Web sites will be disconnected over the holidays, and the Social Security Administration says it is considering whether to shut down its site.  Some experts believe removing a site will entice hackers to try breaking into a site before or after it shuts down.  Others feel that agencies need to announce the removal of a site well in advance so users will not mistake the site's absence for a Y2K incident.  Princeton University yesterday announced that it will remove its systems from the Internet for seven hours on New Year's, according to the Associated Press.  (Washington Post 9 Dec 1999, abstracted in Educause electronic newletter, 10 Dec 1999)
 
 
Small embedded control systems: Microporcessor chips are used in many devices - so many that it's hard to keep track of them all, from the remote control for your TV to the traffic lights all over town. 

The concern is that microprocessors which worked for years without a problem will somehow fail at the turn of the millenium. Because microprocessors have been around since the 1970s, we don't really know all the devices they're embedded in. Much less does anyone remember whether they depend in any way on dates, and whether the new century will cause a problem.

Some manufacturers are trying to reassure their customers in their product literature. This one is funny: check out this Y2K-compliant cheese grater!
 

How is Y2K Affecting our Society?

The Millenium Phenomenon

  A year with so many zeros feels like a big change...

"There's a kind of unfocused apprehension that surrounds these date transformations. The year 2000, in a way, is a symbol without a content - a symbol that can be filled with whatever content an individual wishes to give it."

Michael Barkun, in "End Times Jitters," an interview appearing in Intelligence Report, Summer 1997 

Extreme Reactions

Here's an example of someone who feels the year 2000 will bring the end of civilization as we know it: Several businesses have positioned themselves to take advantage of people's Y2K concerns. Yahoo!'s topical list of Web sites has a section devoted to Y2K preparation. Not all the links there are of Y2K survival businesses, but a good percentage are.

There is even an organization, Y2K PrayerShield, dedicated to praying for the Y2K problem!

Many extreme reactions are based on rumors or unconfirmed predictions. A good place to check the status of any of these is Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility (CPSR), an organization that has taken the Y2K problem seriously, but is also concerned about extreme reactions.

Check CPSR's categories:

  • Rumors (predictions with no known origin)
  • Speculation (we know who said it, but we can't verify its truth)
  • Predictions (from someone's crystal ball: the only way to tell if they're true is to wait and see)
  • Unconfirmed (one source asserted these, but no-one else has)
  • Contradicted (someone said these things, but others have said Not True)

Can we be Optimistic?
Computer expert James Gleick says that humans are "a silly species, easily confused and given to sudden fits of hysteria ... The one genuine risk confronting the world now is that people will take seriously the terrifying millennial forecasts and get even more panicky than they are: hoard cash and groceries, sell all their stocks and arm themselves with crossbows or worse... But dawn will break on Sunday, Jan. 1, and the Western calendar will turn to the year 2000 C.E., and the sky will not fall."  (New York Times Magazine 24 Jan 99)
Y2K SCARE LEADS TO LARGER ADVANCES
Experts say the Y2K bug may actually benefit companies and the economy in general, as it forced many firms to completely overhaul their computer systems and re-engineer their business processes to become more efficient.  Federal Reserve Governor Alan Greenspan noted in his June 1 congressional testimony that the American economy "is displaying a remarkable run of economic growth that appears to have its roots in ongoing advances in technology," and many experts say the Y2K bug is to blame.  The millennium bug gave senior management an urgent deadline for assessing their computer systems as well as their entire business processes, resulting in "a dramatic surge in buying" of ERP systems, which reorganize and integrate a firm's accounting and other business practices.  Thus many companies' antiquated business operations have been modernized, merged, and streamlined to prepare for Y2K, producing benefits such as increased
productivity, improved customer responsiveness, reduced inventory, and increased efficiency.
(Philadelphia Inquirer 07/01/99, quoted in Edupage 07/02/99) 
Y2K FIZZLES
The hysteria of the past two years over potential Y2K disruptions is winding down, and not a moment too soon, says University of British Columbia professor Paul Kedrosky: "Two things are clear: Alarmism has become the real Y2K problem. And having economists opine about technology is like having professional golfers write political columns. No slight intended to golfers." He notes that Deutsche Bank chief economist Edward Yardeni, who's
been predicting a 70% chance of a "severe" world recession in 2000, is now quickly backtracking, softening the scenario to perhaps a six-month dip. Meanwhile, the Gartner Group estimates that by the end of this year, 80% of companies' Y2K costs will be related to public relations, rather than software-fixing. (Wall Street Journal 8 Dec 99) 

For further information:

About this document...

Audience:

 This is for anyone interested in the year 2000 (Y2K) problem and wondering what it means, why it arose, and what its affects will be. No previous computer experience expected.

Objectives:

 When you successfully complete this lesson, you will be able to...
  • Discuss what is meant by the "Year 2000" or "Y2K" problem
  • Explain why the problem came about
  • List what can be done about it
  • Discuss the potential consequences to society
  • Discuss the social phenomena associated with the problem

Module A2000c:

 This document is part of a modular instruction series in Computer Information Systems. For more information, see the overview or the list of modules in this series, A: Social and Ethical Issues. This document has been used in the following classes: CIS 101.

Author:

 Laurence J. Krieg

Institution:
Department of Computer Information Systems, Washtenaw Community College
History: Original: 21 November 1998
Last modification: Monday, 31-Aug-2009 11:47:55 EDT
Copyright: Copyright © 1999, Laurence J. Krieg.
Instructors: You may point to this file in your Web-based materials.
Students: you may make a copy for your personal use.
All other uses: contact the author, Laurence J. Krieg for permission. Email krieg@ieee.org